I’ve been on the lookout for this prediction - in 2010 Gartner predicted Worldwide Mobile App Revenues of xx Billion - for 2011 the prediction is for this to exceed $15 billion
2010 Where are the results!
Given that Apple, Android, RIM, Nokia and a whole stack of operators and 3rd parties run mobile app stores - it’s extremely difficult to find out how good Gartner is at forecasts. Or is this just a large number guestimate?
Average Revenue per App
What Gartner do go on to say is that App Downloads should reach 17.7 billion, which puts an average app price of just 0.84 USD. Now its far easier to guess downloads as regularly Apple and others give updates on the billions of App Downloads.
Free vs Paid-For
Lets make some guestimates about App revenues
- 100% of apps paid for = avg gross revenue of 0.84 USD
- 80% of apps paid for / 20% are free downloads = avg gross revenue is 1.02 USD per app
- 50% of apps paid for / 50% are free downloads = 1.69 USD per app
- 20% of apps paid for / 80% are free downloads = 4.28 USD per app
80% of app downloads being paid for is probably way off the mark. It’s more likely to be 80% of downloads are free. This implies an average app price of 4.28 USD per app - there are not many apps around $4 or $5 there are however plenty of mobile games around this price point.
Android Market Revenues are a problem
If you are following discussions about Android Market you’ll already be aware that stagnating sales revenue is a problem. The handsets are selling well, but many Android customers are not switching to paid for app buys in the same way as Apple has managed. Perhaps its the lack of a good desktop client for discovery? Perhaps its to do with the Haves and the Havenots - implying that those with the cash to burn buy an iPhone first.
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